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A Simple Method for Eliminating Double Counting in Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts

Jewson, Stephen (2013) A Simple Method for Eliminating Double Counting in Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts. Working Paper. UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

We describe a method for eliminating double counting in multi-model ensemble forecasts. The method involves applying weights to the individual model predictions. The weights are derived from empirically estimated correlations between the outputs from the models in the ensemble, without reference to observations. The weighted ensemble mean can then be used as an improved best-estimate forecast, and the weighted ensemble spread as an improved estimate of the model uncertainty. Additional weights could subsequently be added to reflect agreement (or not) between the ensemble members and observations.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects: Mathematics
Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: Dr Stephen Jewson
Date Deposited: 11 Sep 2013 11:34
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2017 11:03
URI: http://cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk/id/eprint/961

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